Monday, April 6, 2009
OUR ECONOMY AINT THAT SEXY NO MORE!
EXPORT ORIENTED ECONOMY
Our Economy has over time grown to depend on exports. Tea, Coffee, horticulture have been bringing in billions every year, and out there, people are just not drinking that much tea anymore, that coupled with heightened competition from other countries that produce the same. In brief, Kenyan specialty Tea, coffee and flowers ain’t that hot anymore!
This almost became a sector on it’s own in 2007/08, and whether the cash was recorded via Money gram/western Union or sent the old darn way through friends and family coming through, it was in the millions of dollars. But Kenyans are coming back home. I read the other day that out of every 5 vacancy announcements in today, one is by a Diaspora Kenyan willing to come back home, job cuts and the American Dream have become today's nightmare!
So we have the most beautiful Safari God created, guess what? So does Tanzania. Just look at how their tourism sector grew while we fought each other after the 2007 elections..” you want a safari, we will give you exactly the same as you were planning to, only more peaceful, and you even get to see Africa’s tallest mountain, why go for 2nd tallest when we have the real deal…check mate” Oh and Croatia has the most beautiful advert on CNN…why go to Africa? Message here: There is still a market out there, but we need to up our game.
WANING FOREIGN INVESTMENT
FDI's down, no question about that.Just when we were beginning to look like the place to be for offshore investments, growing at 7%, we hit rock bottom and began from scratch, that, post poll violence and a shaky coalition,makes a killer cocktail. Rwanda is taking position to take advantage fully! And they are not to blame; they have worked hard to try a corruption free state, as they tread on the path of “from third world to first world.”
Markets are largely driven by sentiment. He sells I sell. Fundamentals of many companies listed have been strong; this is of course based on financial results of 2008. Let’s look at the first ¼ results of 09 before I trip over this, but low demand has pushed supply so high and prices basically crashed. It did not help that before free fall, about 10% of investors at the NSE were foreigners.Lack of confidence in brokerage firms and regulatory issues are pressing, short term invetors are liquidating for other pressing issues. Simply put, it just isn't a hot spot anymore. But bargain hunters know their game. This is when stock picking becomes an art other than a science.
High corruption equals low volumes of investment. That is self explanatory. Let’s not spoil this blog by even talk about it…please consult Google.